The iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models are reportedly experiencing weak demand, with Apple now said to have reduced orders by up to 10 million units between now and the first half of next year, according to a new report by longtime Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Kuo stated that most of the cuts affect the regular iPhone 16, rather than the iPhone 16 Pro models, which feature superior displays and cameras and have been more popular with consumers.
Total production for the iPhone 16 series in Q4 2024 is now estimated at 80 million units, down from the previous forecast of 84 million. This also includes a reduction from the earlier estimate of 90-91 million units for the iPhone 15 series last year. The production forecast for the iPhone 16 series is expected to decrease to 45 million units in Q1 2025 and further to 39 million units in Q2 2025.
Kuo also reiterated his cautious outlook on Apple Intelligence as a driver of demand for the iPhone 16 series. He noted that Apple still cannot launch its AI in Europe and China, two of the world’s largest smartphone markets, due to Apple Intelligence’s use of ChatGPT for certain prompts—an approach banned in China, complicating the launch process.
“I believe Apple has the best chance of success in on-device AI among all companies, and the potential for Apple Intelligence as a popular paid service is high,” Kuo wrote. “However, I think significant growth in iPhone shipments will require more hardware innovation alongside AI development.”
In another note, Kuo pointed out that iPhone SE4 production will begin in December, with Apple projected to produce an estimated 8.6 million units of its upcoming budget device by Q1 2025.
