According to the latest Cisco® Visual Networking Index™ Global Forecast and Service Adoption for 2013 to 2018, global Internet Protocol (IP) traffic will increase nearly three-fold over the next four years due to more Internet users and devices, faster broadband speeds and more video viewing.
With the FIFA World Cup 2014 now well underway, tens of millions of people are viewing games and/or highlights via the Internet. Video streaming and IP broadcast of the World Cup is anticipated to generate 4.3 exabytes of Internet traffic, which is three times the amount of monthly traffic generated by this year’s World Cup host city. In addition, Internet traffic generated by the 60,000 people in a stadium and traveling to games is forecast to surpass the average busy-hour traffic ***from all 94 million smartphones in Brazil.
To place the World Cup in context, global IP traffic is expected to reach 132 exabytes per month by 2018, which is the equivalent to:
- 8.8 billion screens streaming the FIFA World Cup final game in Ultra-HD/4K at the same time;
- 5.5 billion people binge-watching “Game of Thrones” Season 4 via video-on-demand in HD or 1.5 billion watching in Ultra-HD/4K;
Cisco VNI MEA Highlights:
In Middle East and Africa:
- IP traffic will grow 5-fold to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 38%.
- Internet traffic will grow 5.5-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 41%.
- IP video traffic will grow 7-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 48%.
- Internet video traffic will grow 8-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 50%.
Global Traffic Projections and Service Adoption Drivers
- The composition of IP traffic will shift dramatically in the coming years. By 2018, the majority of traffic will originate from devices other than personal computers (PCs) for the first time. Wi-Fi traffic will exceed wired traffic for the first time, and high-definition (HD) video will generate more traffic than standard-definition video.
- Mobile and portable devices other than PCs will drive the majority of traffic by 2018. In 2013, 33 percent of IP traffic originated with non-PC devices. However, by 2018, the non-PC share of IP traffic will grow to 57 percent.
- Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices will generate 76 percent of Internet traffic by 2018. Wi-Fi will be 61 percent, and cellular will be 15 percent. Fixed traffic will be only 24 percent of total Internet traffic by 2018. In comparison, Wi-Fi was 55 percent; cellular was 4 percent; and fixed was 41 percent.
Cisco VNI Forecast Implications for Service Providers
- Service provider networks must adapt to the increasing number of devices, such as tablets, smartphones and M2M connections, that will need to be authenticated to gain access to fixed/mobile networks with enhanced security and intelligence required.
- The evolution of advanced video services, such as HD/ultra HD video, may create new bandwidth and scalability requirements for service providers. Residential, business and mobile consumers continue to have strong demand for advanced video services across all network and device types with quality of service, convenience, and price as key factors for success.
- Continued business video adoption, such as HD and web-based video conferencing and business VoD may prompt greater growth in network virtualization and leveraging the Internet for video transmission with network ramifications for service providers and over-the-top providers.
